The whole collection · No. 17 of 36

Russell’s chicken

For checking your forecast.

1912 · The Problems of Philosophy

Where it comes from

In The Problems of Philosophy, Bertrand Russell describes a chicken fed by the same man every day of its life, which grows more and more confident that tomorrow will be the same. Then one morning the man comes for the chicken instead.

How to play it

Feed the chicken, day after day. Watch the forecast.

Pick it up

What it teaches (try it first)

More data of the same kind isn’t more understanding. The chicken’s best data arrived the day before its worst.

Ask yourself. What does your forecast quietly assume will never change?

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